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Poll: racial prejudice could cost Obama the White House

Staff Reporter | Posted September 22, 2008 12:23 PM

Racial prejudice could keep Barack Obama out of the White House if the election is close, according to a new AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, found that many whites described blacks as "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

Wha's more troubling for Democrats is that "the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 -- about 2.5 percentage points," according to Newsweek.

Forty percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independents -- voters Obama can't win the White House without -- agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.

"There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman told Newsweek.

Obama's campaign also has to be concerned about the "Bradley effect," a phenomenon in which some white voters lie to pollsters about their preferences when a black candidate is seeking office. The name refers to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who lost a race for governor of California despite polls showing him comfortably ahead.

The poll could help explain why Obama is "locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats," as Newsweek describes it.

With the economy in trouble, an unpopular war and an unpopular president, the Democratic nominee should be doing a lot better right now in the polls. But only 70 percent of self-described Democrats support Obama, compared to 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain, according to Newsweek.

Although Obama is receiving "almost unanimous support from blacks" in the poll, "that probably wouldn't be enough to counter the negative effect of some whites' views," according to Newsweek.

And the news reports indicate that statistical models taken from the poll suggest that Obama's support could be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

One person interviewed in Ohio summed it up honestly. "We still don't like black people," said John Clouse, a 57-year-old man interviewed at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio.

Even among former supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton, the survey found racial prejudice. Only 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they want Obama to be president, while 17 percent plan to vote for McCain.

The survey of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

Articles written by a Staff Reporter are unsigned reports from a member of the staff.

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Comments 21

Ostend Street
2008-09-22 12:36:01

So, what's new. Most of us already knew that racial prejudice was alive and well but we are hoping for that overall change in the American attitude just like we have always hoped for a different America. But, change is inevitable whether Obama wins or not. We will either change for the better or the worse and I feel some of the worse is already showing that America is about to come apart at the seams. Barack Obama deserves to win. John McCain and the Bush Administration are a travesty to everything that is upright in the world. These fools needs to be thrown out - not voted out.

Gaias Child
2008-09-22 13:12:01

NONONO the old prejudiced selfish people are all dying off and the younger and middle generation has not ossified and lost their vision and ideals. This prejudice is strong enough to have made it really tough for Obama, the most gifted candidate in generations, to close the deal as they say. However, y'll know what will happen to him if he closes that deal too early. The good intelligence that infuses all creation is giving him a tough run to protect him. Add to that that the man's first priority is probably to be here for his family. It's too dangerous for him to run too far ahead. I would rather he be here for his family too.

ch
2008-09-22 13:13:42

I don't understand how race can be blamed if Obama loses. I think that a lot of people are not voting for him because they do not agree with his policies. Or maybe they still are nervous that he has very little experience. I realize that some people won't vote for him because he is black, but I think that it is inflamatory to suggest that is the reason if he loses. If our country was that racist he would not be as far as he is...Hilary would have been the nominee.

Pamela
2008-09-22 14:23:00

The reason Obama will lose the election, is because he is a liberal, bordering on Socialism. Why can't the media understand this. They want to make a story, or excuse for him losing, but it's just his politics. I can't see Condi or Powell losing an election because of race. They are admired by everyone.

SScott
2008-09-22 14:48:07

What also has to be considered and in many cases is not, and is something that has nothing to do with race, is that there are blacks who are not going to vote for Obama but who are not saying that they are not going to vote for him. It's almost expected by the black community that they would be voting for him. I am one. I was in a group of pro-Obama blacks the other day and you know, I am not going to say I am pro McCain/Palin in such a group. It's like the pressure that was put on some of the Black Hiliary SuperDelegates to switch to Obama. Some did because of the pressure. We don't know how they are going to vote. They are certainly not going to say that they won't vote for Obama, though.

Karen
2008-09-22 15:57:19

America is falling fast. And these lowdown racist scums are bringing the country down even faster. So foolish America has reared a large group of people who would rather die, suffer be bombed to oblivion than to have a black man as president. Such losers. I'll just sit back and watch. Soon Americans will be given baskets to carry water by their choosen administration.

MLee
2008-09-22 18:12:42

I was wondering if The Daily Voice was going to report on this poll by AP-Yahoo News conducted with Stanford University. Some of the comments on this article totally ignore the facts of the poll. The organization taking this poll like most blacks knew about the Bradley effect, a phenomenon in which some white voters lie to pollsters about their preferences when a black candidate is seeking office. They knew whites tend to lie more often during phone polls than when taking the poll on-line. To get around their lies, they selected the targeted group by phone and then had them fill out an on-line survey. Massive voter registration drives and a very heavy voter turn out on Election Day is one way to overcome racist voters.

apr
2008-09-22 21:53:09

I'd rather have a liberal bordering on socialism than a nutty right-wing fascist like John McCain and George Bush anyday! Condi and Colin Powell are puppets that can't think for themselves and are most certainly not admired by everyone.

shirl
2008-09-23 03:56:33

When will we let our better angels guide us? Why do we demonize Obama simply because he is half-black and half-white? Isn't he like all of us, made in God's loving image? Has he not proven over long months his steady leadership, his humanity, his brilliance? Hasn't McCain-Pain proven to be liars, power and warmongers, fearmongers--a man who calls his wife a "CU*T," who divorces his disabled first wife for a hottie heiress and who selects an ill-educated powergrabbing lying unprepared beauty queen to be our first woman president? Watch as the Bush regime grabs all our economy in its last few months, just as it grabbed the military, justice system and civil service. Let us put country first and McSame last!

RJ
2008-09-23 04:10:18

Pamela. I must disagree with you. Everybody does not love Condi and never has. Colin Powell is cool, but he is still a conservative who belongs to a party that cares more about rich Americans than working class Americans. I am not quite sure that race is not a huge issue in this election. If America was over its hatred of blacks, Obama would not only be identified as a black man in the press, but he would also be recognized as a white man. After all, he is biracial. However, that old tried and true one drop rule is still upheld in the unconscious minds of some Americans and he can not be seen as anything other than a black man trying to be the president of the United States of America, when in fact he is a product of white America just as much as he is black. Pamela, don't kid yourself, or anyone else for that matter. We still have a long way to go, and if it were Condi or Powell running for the executive office rather than Obama, I would be very surprised if America did not find a way to remind the world that they are black first.

truthy
2008-09-23 11:19:41

What? Racists won't vote for a Black man? I AM SHOCKED...

Jeff Krynski
2008-09-23 11:56:28

What the pollsters need to do in order to present an accurate picture is to add 9 pecentage points to McCain after each poll.The bradley effect is worth nine points. So now that the polls show Obama 48% McCain 44%, the true picture is Obama 48% McCain 53%.Most whites will lie that they support Obama while secretly waiting to vote McCain.Obama needs to be at least 15 points ahead in the polls to win.

Jon
2008-09-23 12:11:35

I saw this in my Sunday paper, not too suprised, since while not as stong as it was 20 or 30 years ago, hate still is part of the American landscape.And, if someone is foolish enough to vite based on skin color and not issues, this country deserves a Palin/McBush win to continue its downward sprial.

robjh1
2008-09-23 18:23:11

It has been about race and gender from day one. The liberal media told us otherwise. Had this matter been addressed from the on set _ just layed out there _ it wouldn't have such the shock value so many thing it has now. Let's face it some people will vote for Barack Obama because he is black and others won't vote because he is black. Likewise, some will vote for John McCain because there is a woman on the ticket and some won't because she is a woman. www.andwearenotsaved.blogspot.com

Trixy
2008-09-23 18:46:11

So if Obama is receiving almost unanimous support from blacks how come that's not seen as racism? How can a white opponent counter that 'negative effect'? Come on. If white America is slammed for not being allowed to vote for a white guy without it being called racism, black America should carry the same baggage. At least white America is giving Obama some of their vote.

jay
2008-09-23 21:39:26

Trixy, White men have dominated as presidents, senators, etc. Name a black president that put the country in the tube. You can't because there has never been a black president. Blacks have voted for the person who they think would help liberate African Americans. Every one is struggling but when things goes bad Blacks are the ones to get hit hard the most. Also Trixy, people are voting for Mcbush because he is White. Why do you think the polls are so close.

JMT
2008-09-23 23:40:58

Everyone keeps saying that this is Obama's problem. This is not Obama's problem, this is America's problem. If Barack loses based on the color of his skin, I would not hold that against him. America needs to check itself!!

Trixy
2008-09-24 21:42:00

jay, I rather blundered on to this site, (page actually), without checking it out first. Only after I posted did I look further. I didn't mean to be insensitive. You make a good point that traditionally blacks have voted for whites because that has been their only option. However I think for every white sticking to their race the numbers are at least even now for blacks to vote by race too. I personally think it's a weak reason to pick a candidate no matter who does it. American can't be told they're racist because they don't pick a black man, because the solution to pick him because OF his race, is also using racist logic. It's McCain by the way ;) He's his own man with his own history. Both Obama and McCain have so much more to them than race, age and party politics.. yet more than race it usually comes down to whether you're conservative or liberal. That is colour blind.

MLee
2008-09-25 00:48:49

Trixy, you said �American can't be told they're racist because they don't pick a black man, because the solution to pick him because OF his race, is also using racist logic.� Based on the mess our country is in after the last 8 years of a republican administration in office, if a white man was running for president having the same credentials and policies as Obama I guarantee you that the white man would win by a landslide. If you do not believe me, why does all media keep saying that Obama should be leading by a very large margin over McCain with the terrible state of our country? That is nothing but racism.

Trixy
2008-09-25 01:42:16

MLee, I don't know about trusting the media for balanced information, especially when they use TV skits and pop polls as their sources of public feeling. It's always a shock to the media when Joe Farmer and his mates go to the voting boothes and their votes reflect a world the media wasn't interested in. I think a white man who had the same credentials as Obama probably would be appealing, like Clinton was. Yet a white woman like Palin is roasted for her credentials. Then we have McCain the most experienced of them all and he's devalued because of his age. I was thinking today with regards to the media IF they do have an influence it's usually a negative one. Rather than praise Obama it will be because they've ridiculed McCain that will work in Obama's favour.

JC
2008-09-26 17:40:47

HEY PAMELA, IF CONDI AND POWELL WERE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, WE WOULD BE HAVING THE SAME CONVERSATION RIGHT NOW! POWELL SAID IT HIMSELF AND I QUOTE" AMERICA IS NOT READY FOR A BLACK PRESIDENT YET" WITH THE ELECTIONS BEING THIS CLOSE, RACISM CAN CAUSE HIM THE WHITE HOUSE!

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