Obama's big new lead: Is it real or a fluke?

Barack Obama has surged ahead of John McCain, taking a decisive 9 point lead in a new poll released by the Washington Post and ABC News.

The new poll found Obama with 52 percent compared to 43 percent for John McCain. It was good news for the Obama campaign after a rough start to the month of September, when McCain led 49 to 47 percent in the same poll. 

It was also significant for Obama to poll a majority of the public opinion in the survey. Neither John Kerry nor Al Gore ever won a majority of public opinion in any pre-election poll when they ran for president, according to the Post.

The Post attributed the changing poll numbers to "[t]urmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy,"

"Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973," the Post reported.

That was good news for Obama because voters said they trust him more than McCain to deal with the economy and with the current crisis on Wall Street. A full 50 percent of voters said the economy is the most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. But only 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, which the Post described as the lowest percentage of the campaign.

Obama has also made inroads with white voters, particularly with white women. McCain and Obama are now nearly tied among white women, and Obama has started to close the gap among white voters overall to five percentage points, according to the Post.

The first two weeks of September were defined by McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate, and she clearly gave the Arizona senator a boost after the Republican Convention. But since that time, her numbers have dropped, and her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent, the Post reported.

The "enthusiasm gap" is also back, and it's hurting McCain. Although 62 percent of Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, only 34 percent of McCain's supporters felt the same way.

No Democratic candidate for president has won the majority of the white vote since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but Obama is doing remarkably well with that group, pulling 45 percent compared to 50 percent for McCain.

With the black vote, on the other hand, it isn't even close. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American president, and he can count on strong black support. According to the Post poll, 96 percent of blacks support Obama and just 3 percent support McCain.

The presidential candidates will meet for their first debate on Friday in Mississippi, and the topic is foreign policy, which is generally considered to be McCain's strong suit. But the new poll shows some potential trouble for McCain there as well. "Two weeks ago, when those surveyed were asked who they trusted to deal with a major unexpected crisis, McCain led 54 percent to 37 percent," the Post reported. "That lead is gone," the paper said. Also gone is McCain's big lead on terrorism, which the Post said "has all but disappeared."

Political observers will be watching new polls closely to see if other opinion surveys confirm the findings in the Post-ABC News poll. Two tracking polls released Wednesday morning find Obama with a 2 point lead and a 6 point lead.